The Proper Use of Statistics
There are a lot of facts, figures, evidence, and statistics in the “Illegal Mexican” controversy. Everyone has something to quote in the debate no matter on which side of the fence he or she is standing.
Even a lie or a sincerely held false belief is liable to have some facts to support, at least in the mind of the beholder, that the position is the correct one. Sometimes, it is a truckload of facts, manuals, abstracts, and studies that someone produces to “prove” a pointand it still turns out to support a falsely held belief.
How can this be so? I mean, if I inundate you with enough facts for my position, shouldn’t you yield to my point of view?
No, you should not.
There is a book that every person who seeks to take the position of the Frosty Wooldridges[1] of the world should read: How to Lie With Statistics, by Darrell Huff and Irving Geis.
(Disclaimer time: I do not believe that everyone without exception purposes in his or her heart to lie with statistics regarding the Legal or Illegal Mexican issue, but may indeed do so unintentionally.)
“There is terror in numbers, writes Darrell Huff in How to Lie with Statistics. And nowhere does this terror translate to blind acceptance of authority more than in the slippery world of averages, correlations, graphs, and trends.
The book remains relevant as a wake-up call for people unaccustomed to examining the endless flow of numbers pouring from Wall Street, Madison Avenue, and everywhere else someone has an axe to grind, a point to prove, or a product to sell.
The secret language of statistics, so appealing in a fact-minded culture, is employed to sensationalize, inflate, confuse, and oversimplify, warns Huff.”[2]
This is why it is important to keep the channels of communication in this debate wide open. Neither side should be allowed to pooh-pooh evidence it finds opposing its position.
This is why I make a point in my columns that I want (need) readers to challenge my position.
An example of what I am trying to say is in the issue found in Wooldridge’s essays claiming that illegal Mexicans are spreading Hepatitis and Tuberculosis throughout California and possibly the rest of the United States. He gives the impression, at least to me that America is in imminent peril of being wiped out from these diseases.
He quotes statistics.
If you will note in his writings, he targets Mexicans almost exclusively. I have to say “almost” because I cannot claim to have read everything the man has written and therefore have to concede that he could have written of other minorities.
I contacted the CDC who told me personally there is no evidence that any one racial or ethnic groupLegal or Illegal- has caused an increase in these diseases. The representative, in fact, did show me the stats that Asian minorities have a higher incidence of TB than the whites, blacks, and Hispanics.[3]
She then went on to say,
“Despite these numbers, CDC does not have data to show that foreign-born individuals have caused an increase in TB in recent years.”[4]
Did Frosty not know this? Perhaps not or maybe he did. I simply do not know. But, if he did, why didn’t he report it?
If you go back and read my column footnoted below, you will notice that I gave both sides of the issue:
1. “CDC’s data shows that foreign-born individuals whether illegal immigrants or legal immigrants accounted for more than half of TB cases reported in 2004. Overall, racial, and ethnic minorities also face higher rates of disease than white Americans, with both Hispanics and Blacks at a rate that is 8 times higher than whites and Asians 20 times higher than whites.”[5]
2. “Despite these numbers, CDC does not have data to show that foreign-born individuals have caused an increase in TB in recent years.”[6]
The evidence “appears to say” that though the minorities face a higher rate, minorities haven’t caused an increase of the diseases.
The whole point is that when using stats as evidence to prove your position, you have to have the highest ethic of honesty possible when reporting. It is what my journalism classes taught me. You have to not only report what you have, but you must be able to say what those facts “seem” to be saying and what else they could mean!
You have to “bend over backwards” with an absolute integrity (that you would rather die than compromise) to give ALL the information to help your reader make an informed decisionnot just the information that would lead your reader to side with your position.
Next Phony-Baloney Detection Lesson: “False Appeals to Authority”.
Stay tuned.
[1] An anti-Legal and Illegal Mexican Activist
[2] Amazon.com; Editorial Reviews Amazon.com;
[3] Cal Thomas at Foxnews–What’s Happened?; by Doug Bower
[4] Ibid
[5] Ibid
[6] Ibid
Doug Bower is a freelance writer, Syndicated Columnist, and book author. His most recent writing credits include The Atlanta Journal-Constitution, The Houston Chronicle, The Philadelphia Inquirer, and Transitions Abroad. He is a columnist with Cricketsoda.com and the Magic City Morning Star, and more than 21 additional online magazines. He lives with his wife in Guanajuato, Mexico. His newest book is, Mexican Living: Blogging it from a Third World Country
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